About

Horn Analytica

Evidence and data-based analysis and prediction for Horn of Africa countries — built on the principle that every claim must trace to a source.

What we do

Horn Analytica produces evidence-based analysis of political, economic, security, and environmental dynamics across Ethiopia, Somalia, Sudan, Eritrea, Djibouti, South Sudan, and Somaliland. We treat the Horn as a single analytical unit — because what happens in one country routinely and immediately shapes what happens in the others.

Our work combines quantitative data from international databases (conflict event data, macroeconomic indicators, displacement statistics, climate measurements) with qualitative analysis grounded in the region's history, political economy, and social structures.

Methodology

Source-first

Every dataset, indicator, and claim traces to a source with an access date and methodology note. We do not publish findings that cannot be verified.

Uncertainty visible

Where sources disagree — on population, conflict deaths, economic figures — we store competing estimates and flag disagreement explicitly. Eritrea and Sudan receive special uncertainty flags given structural data limitations.

Raw from analytical

Raw source data is never edited. Transformations are documented and reproducible. Any chart or indicator should be traceable to a source, an access date, and a transformation script.

Limitations stated

Several Horn countries have structurally low data quality. We acknowledge this rather than omitting the country or using stale figures silently.

Data sources

Horn Analytica draws on a curated set of international data sources, each assessed for reliability, coverage, and license. Primary sources include:

ACLED

Armed Conflict Location & Event Data — political violence and protest events

Primary

World Bank WDI

World Development Indicators — macro and social indicators

Primary

UNHCR

Refugee and displacement data

Primary

FEWS NET

Food security phase classifications (IPC)

Primary

CHIRPS

Satellite-based rainfall estimates

Primary

V-Dem

Democracy and governance indices

Secondary

IMF WEO

Macroeconomic indicators and forecasts

Secondary

Get in touch

Horn Analytica is an independent analytical project. For analysis requests, data questions, corrections, or collaboration enquiries:

amareteklay@gmail.com