South Sudan
Overview
The world's youngest country has spent much of its existence in civil war. The Revitalised Agreement on the Resolution of the Conflict (R-ARCSS, 2018) established a transitional unity government, but its implementation has been slow. Nearly all oil is exported through Sudan via pipeline — making South Sudan hostage to Sudan's stability.
Structural features
The political settlement is between armed elites who use oil revenues to maintain loyalty networks.
Oil pipeline runs through Sudan to Port Sudan — South Sudan's fiscal survival depends on Sudan's stability.
Dinka (President Kiir's base) and Nuer (VP Machar's base) are the two largest groups in a country of 60+ ethnic communities.
Uganda hosts ~1.5 million South Sudanese refugees — one of the world's largest single refugee populations.
Key tensions
Kiir–Machar axis: formal partnership but armed networks remain intact; any flashpoint risks renewed conflict.
Sudan's civil war disrupted the oil pipeline in 2023–2024, directly threatening South Sudan's revenue.
No institutionalised path to competitive politics.
Key relationships
Pipeline dependency; South Sudan's revenue depends on Sudan's stability
UPDF deployed during civil war; hosts 1.5M+ refugees
Nairobi is the financial hub for South Sudan's economy
Largest oil investor (CNPC); navigated conflict by backing both sides
Open questions
- Q1
Can the R-ARCSS transition produce a legitimate election, or will it be extended indefinitely?
- Q2
What is the full impact of Sudan's civil war on South Sudan's fiscal stability?
- Q3
Is there any realistic path to economic diversification away from oil?
In-depth analysis for South Sudan
Quantitative analysis, data visualisations, and detailed reports on South Sudan are being developed and will be published here as they become available.
Get notified when analysis is published →