Sudan
Overview
Sudan is experiencing its worst humanitarian catastrophe since the 2003 Darfur genocide. The April 2023 war between the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) has displaced over 10 million people — the world's largest displacement crisis as of 2024 — killed tens of thousands, and collapsed Khartoum as a functional capital.
Structural features
The war is between two armed networks that both penetrated the state and built parallel economic and political structures.
RSF grew out of Janjaweed militias used in Darfur; Hemedti built an economic empire in gold mining and Gulf connections.
De facto partition is increasingly the reality: SAF controls north/east; RSF controls Khartoum and Darfur.
Gold has been the major export since South Sudan's secession took most oil reserves in 2011.
Key tensions
Atrocities in Darfur against non-Arab communities have prompted genocide framing and ICC jurisdiction discussions.
External meddling: UAE backs RSF; Egypt backs SAF — the Horn's conflicts are proxy arenas.
Oil pipeline to Port Sudan means South Sudan's revenue depends on Sudan's stability.
Key relationships
Strong SAF support; shared Nile interest; views RSF as UAE proxy
RSF support (strong evidence); gold trade; invested in Hemedti
Mediation attempts; Blue Nile and Al-Fashaga border complications
RSF/Janjaweed networks cross the border; massive refugee flows into Chad
Open questions
- Q1
Is a negotiated settlement possible, or does this end in de facto partition?
- Q2
What happens to Sudan's Nile water position relative to the GERD if the state remains fragmented?
- Q3
Can the Port Sudan-based SAF government maintain enough coherence to be a negotiating partner?
In-depth analysis for Sudan
Quantitative analysis, data visualisations, and detailed reports on Sudan are being developed and will be published here as they become available.
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